Dear Members of Cercle AWAP,

Two days ago, Janet Yellen has given her knowledgeable views on US economy and
we would like to share with you this article that seems to us extremely interesting.

In a nutshell, Yellen seems not be worried about US economy outlook. Robust growth in 2018 which will continue to be in 2019, but a lesser pace. She also foresees a “new normal level of real rates to be low and stay low”, with short-term of 1% rate as realistic, while inflation stands at 2%. However, she emphasises that, since the US economy is growing fast, FED funds rate may need to move higher because ‘economy needs restraining’. This affects stock markets, even though she does not see stocks patently overvalued. In a short run, her concerns are more focused on the build-up in debt in the ‘non-financial’ sector, the trade frictions with China and from president Trump undermining confidence in FED policy independence. What she identifies as a major problem (medium/long run) is the US nation debt. “As rates rise, we are on an unsustainable debt path”, she said. ENJOY the Article!

Saludos, German

Janet Yellen“I Don’t Understand Trump’s Trade Policies”